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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-09-11T15:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-11T15:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26870/-1
CME Note: A very faint CME seen mainly in SOHO C3. Its source might be an eruption of very minor filament seen in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2023-09-11T13:57Z mostly as dimming West of Active Region 13430. Filament stretches from S12W14 to S29E01. There is a post-eruptive brightening in SDO AIA 304 and dimming in SDO AIA 193. The arrival signature is characterized by a sheath region possibly starting at 2023-09-14T13:22Z and ejecta/CME core possibly starting by 2023-09-14T16:29Z and lasting until approximately 2023-09-14T21:12Z. The boundaries are identified mostly via magnetic field measurements and the ejecta features rotations of the non-radial components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-14T13:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-14T20:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -11551.57 hour(s)
Difference: -6.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

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